Details of non-partisan election analyses United States House of Representatives elections, 2006 – predictions

1 details of non-partisan election analyses

1.1 cook political report
1.2 cqpolitics.com
1.3 larry sabato s crystal ball
1.4 electoral-vote.com
1.5 pollster.com
1.6 majority watch
1.7 rothenberg political report
1.8 politicalforecasting.com
1.9 unfutz: ed fitzgerald s survey of polls

details of non-partisan election analyses

because of large number of individual races covered nationwide political services, these analyses week or 2 behind results obtained local polling organization, still useful.

cook political report

the cook political report, independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, listed 89 seats - 68 held republicans , 21 democrats - being potentially in play.

as of november 6, 2006:

347 seats solid , therefore not considered competitive.
13 republican seats considered republican , 13 democratic seats considered democratic, meaning while these races not competitive @ moment, become competitive.
12 republican seats considered lean republican , 5 democratic seats considered lean democratic, politically competitive, 1 party had distinct advantage.
5 republican seats (the open seats being vacated bob beauprez, sherwood boehlert, jim kolbe, bob ney , jim nussle) considered lean democratic. no democratic seats considered lean republican.
38 republican seats, , 1 democratic seat, considered toss up

cqpolitics.com

cqpolitics.com, independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, @ end of november 6, 2006, made following analysis:

339 seats safe , therefore not considered competitive.
22 republican seats considered republican favored , 16 democratic seats considered democrat favored, meaning while these races not competitive @ moment, become competitive.
20 republican seats considered leans republican , 5 democratic seats considered leans democratic, politically competitive, yet 1 party has distinct advantage.
23 republican seats , no democratic seats rated no clear favorite. were: ariz. 1 -- renzi, ariz. 5 -- hayworth, conn. 4 -- shays, conn. 5 -- johnson, fla. 13—vacated harris, fla. 22—shaw, ill. 6 -- vacated hyde, ind. 2 -- chocola, ind. 9 -- sodrel, minn. 6 -- vacated kennedy, n.c. 11—taylor, n.h. 2 -- bass, n.m. 1 -- wilson, n.y. 20—sweeney, n.y. 24—vacated boehlert, ohio 1 -- chabot, ohio 2 -- schmidt, ohio 15—pryce, pa. 6 -- gerlach, pa. 8 -- fitzpatrick, wash. 8 -- reichert, wis. 8 -- vacated green, wyo. al—cubin
8 republican seats rated leans democratic:

colorado s 7th congressional district (being vacated bob beauprez in run governor)
florida s 16th congressional district (formerly held mark foley)
indiana s 8th congressional district (held john hostettler)
iowa s 1st congressional district (being vacated jim nussle in run governor)
new york s 26th congressional district (held tom reynolds)
ohio s 18th congressional district (formerly held bob ney)
pennsylvania s 7th congressional district (held curt weldon)
pennsylvania s 10th congressional district (held don sherwood)
texas s 22nd congressional district (formerly held tom delay)


1 republican seat, arizona s 8th congressional district (being vacated jim kolbe), rated democrat favored

larry sabato s crystal ball

in august, sabato predicted pro-democratic shift of 12-15 seats in house. in mid-october, revised estimate, predicting net gain democrats of 18-22 seats. on october 26, revised estimate 21-26, november 2, upped estimate 24-30, , on day before election, raised 25-33 following breakdown:

r seats r (10): co-06 (tancredo), fl-08 (keller), fl-09 (open), in-03 (souder), mi-07 (open), mn-02 (kline), nh-01 (bradley), ny-03 (king), oh-12 (tiberi), wv-02 (capito)
r seats leaning r (13): ca-04 (doolittle), ca-50 (bilbray), co-05 (open), il-10 (kirk), ia-02 (leach), ky-02 (lewis), nv-02 (open), nj-07 (ferguson), ny-29 (kuhl), nc-08 (hayes), va-10 (wolf), tx-23 (bonilla), wa-05 (mcmorris)
r seats toss-up, slight edge r (17): az-01 (renzi), ks-02 (ryun), ky-03 (northup), mn-01 (gutknecht), mn-06 (open), ne-03 (open), nv-03 (porter), ny-19 (kelly), ny-25 (walsh), ny-26 (reynolds), oh-01 (chabot), pa-04 (hart), pa-08 (fitzpatrick), va-02 (drake), wa-08 (reichert), wi-08 (open), wy-al (cubin)
r seats toss-up, slight edge d (18): az-05 (hayworth), ca-11 (pombo), co-04 (musgrave), ct-02 (simmons), ct-04 (shays), ct-05 (johnson), fl-16 (open), fl-22 (shaw), id-01 (open), il-06 (open), in-09 (sodrel), ky-04 (davis), nh-02 (bass), nm-01 (wilson), ny-20 (sweeney), oh-02 (schmidt), oh-15 (pryce), tx-22 (open)
r seats leaning d (9): fl-13 (open), in-02 (chocola), ia-01 (open), ny-24 (open), nc-11 (taylor), oh-18 (open), pa-06 (gerlach), pa-07 (weldon), pa-10 (sherwood)
r seats d (3): az-08 (open), co-07 (open), in-08 (hostettler)
d seats r (0): none
d seats leaning r (0): none
d seats toss up, slight edge d (1): ga-12 (barrow)
d seats leaning d (3): ga-08 (marshall), il-08 (bean), ia-03 (boswell)
d seats d (6): in-07 (carson), la-03 (melancon), oh-06 (open), tx-17 (edwards), vt-al (open), wv-01 (mollohan)

electoral-vote.com

electoral-vote.com site run andrew tanenbaum, professor of computer science @ vrije universiteit. while covered senate races in 2006, made algorithmic predictions house-based entirely on independent polling data. (where no independent polls exist, 2004 election results used).

as of november 2, electoral-vote.com predicting 38 democratic pickups , no republican pickups.

his calculations predict house comprise: 240 democrats, 193 republicans, 1 ties. democratic pickups are: az-05 az-08 ca-11 co-04 co-07 ct-02 ct-04 ct-05 fl-13 fl-16 fl-22 ia-01 il-06 il-10 in-02 in-08 in-09 ky-03 ky-04 nc-08 nc-11 nh-02 nm-01 ny-19 ny-20 ny-24 ny-25 ny-29 oh-01 oh-02 oh-15 oh-18 pa-06 pa-07 pa-08 pa-10 tx-22 wi-08

pollster.com

mystery pollster mark blumenthal , university of wisconsin–madison professor charles franklin aggregated polling data more 60 competitive house races , offered objective analysis on methodology , reliability of numbers. on october 1, 2006, began post recent polls these 60+ districts released public.

majority watch

majority watch non-partisan poll rt strategies , constituent dynamics. polling done automated telephone surveys of voters.

rothenberg political report

the rothenberg political report non-partisan analysis of american politics , elections. stuart rothenberg regular columnist in roll call. on nov 6 predicted democratic gain of 30-36 seats, following breakdown:[1]

pure toss - 19 republican seats: ca 11 (pombo, r), ct 2 (simmons, r), ct 4 (shays, r), fl 16 (open; foley, r), fl 22 (shaw, r), il 6 (open; hyde, r), ks 2 (ryun, r), mn 1 (gutknecht, r), mn 6 (open; kennedy, r), nm 1 (wilson, r), ny 26 (reynolds, r), oh 1 (chabot, r), oh 2 (schmidt, r), pa 4 (hart, r), pa 6 (gerlach, r), pa 8 (fitzpatrick, r), tx 22 (open; delay, r), va 2 (drake, r), wi 8 (open; green, r)
toss up/tilt republican




10 republican seats: - az 1 (renzi, r), ca 4 (doolittle, r), co 4 (musgrave, r), id 1 (open; otter, r), ky 3 (northup, r), ky 4 (davis, r), nv 3 (porter, r), ny 25 (walsh, r), ny 29 (kuhl, r), wa 8 (reichert, r)




toss up/tilt democratic




8 republican seats: az 5 (hayworth, r), ct 5 (johnson, r), fl 13 (open; harris, r), in 9 (sodrel, r), nh 2 (bass, r), ny 20 (sweeney, r), ny 24 (open; boehlert, r), nc 11 (taylor, r)
3 democratic seats: ga 8 (marshall, d), ga 12 (barrow, d), il 8 (bean, d)




leans republican - 3 republican seats: nj 7 (ferguson, r), oh 12 (tiberi, r), tx 23 (bonilla, r)
leans democratic




6 republican seats: ia 1 (open; nussle, r), in 2 (chocola, r), oh 15 (pryce, r), oh 18 (open; ney, r), pa 7 (weldon, r), pa 10 (sherwood, r)
1 democratic seat: ia 3 (boswell, d)




republican favored - 8 republican seats: ca 50 (bilbray, r), co 5 (open; hefley, r), ky 2 (lewis, r), ne 3 (open; osborne, r), nv 2 (open; gibbons, r), ny 3 (king, r), ny 19 (kelly, r), wy al (cubin, r)
democrat favored




3 republican seats: az 8 (open; kolbe, r), co 7 (open; beauprez, r), in 8 (hostettler, r)
1 democratic seat: vt a-l (open; sanders, d)



politicalforecasting.com

at politicalforecasting.com [2], predictions 2006 house of representatives elections categorized method (e.g., statistical models, prediction markets) , averaged within , across methods arrive @ pollyseat, number of seats republicans expected lose on november 7. of october 30, pollyseat value stood @ 21. in other words, republicans expected lose control of house of representatives.

unfutz: ed fitzgerald s survey of polls

ed fitzgerald, @ blog, unfutz, compiled summary of several dozen forecasters, statistics , charts.